New Hampshire poll points to trouble for Trump; Growing support for DeSantis


A new Granite State poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire signals waning support for former President Donald J. Trump as the party’s 2024 presidential nominee — and growing strength for Gov. Ron DeSantis from Florida.

Among more than 300 likely Republican primary voters, 37% said they wanted Mr. Trump to be the party’s next presidential nominee, compared with 39% who said they would support Mr. DeSantis, within the margin of error of 5.5% for this question. Mr. Trump is now “statistically linked” to Mr. DeSantis, according to the poll.

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That’s a significant change from October, when a Granite State poll showed Mr. Trump had the support of 43% of likely Republican voters; Mr. DeSantis was at 18%.

But Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, warned there was still plenty of time before the 2024 presidential cycle: “It’s daylight saving time. We haven’t even had the midterm elections yet.

The tightening between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis is “part of a typical pattern,” Mr. Smith said in a statement. “As the primary draws closer, new candidates are emerging and attracting more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.”

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The survey was conducted from June 16 to 20. It also showed that among more than 840 likely voters in the 2024 general election, Mr. DeSantis was a stronger Republican challenger than Mr. Trump to face President Biden in the next presidential election.

Mr. Biden, who won the state in 2020, would get 50% of the vote if he ran against Mr. Trump, who would get 43%, according to the poll. But Mr. Biden was only expected to get 46% against Mr. DeSantis, who would get 47%, according to the poll.

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In a brief interview, Mr. Smith described waning support for Mr. Trump as voters “move away from last year’s model to look at this year’s model”.


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