A new Granite State poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire signals waning support for former President Donald J. Trump as the party’s 2024 presidential nominee — and growing strength for Gov. Ron DeSantis from Florida.
Among more than 300 likely Republican primary voters, 37% said they wanted Mr. Trump to be the party’s next presidential nominee, compared with 39% who said they would support Mr. DeSantis, within the margin of error of 5.5% for this question. Mr. Trump is now “statistically linked” to Mr. DeSantis, according to the poll.
That’s a significant change from October, when a Granite State poll showed Mr. Trump had the support of 43% of likely Republican voters; Mr. DeSantis was at 18%.
But Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, warned there was still plenty of time before the 2024 presidential cycle: “It’s daylight saving time. We haven’t even had the midterm elections yet.
The tightening between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis is “part of a typical pattern,” Mr. Smith said in a statement. “As the primary draws closer, new candidates are emerging and attracting more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.”
The survey was conducted from June 16 to 20. It also showed that among more than 840 likely voters in the 2024 general election, Mr. DeSantis was a stronger Republican challenger than Mr. Trump to face President Biden in the next presidential election.
Mr. Biden, who won the state in 2020, would get 50% of the vote if he ran against Mr. Trump, who would get 43%, according to the poll. But Mr. Biden was only expected to get 46% against Mr. DeSantis, who would get 47%, according to the poll.
In a brief interview, Mr. Smith described waning support for Mr. Trump as voters “move away from last year’s model to look at this year’s model”.