NFL odds, betting: Cowboys take their place in this week’s top NFL picks

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    I’m competing in an NFL competition where you have to submit five ATS picks each week. For five weeks, those picks are 16-9 after finishing 3-2 last week. Picking a single winner can be difficult — let alone five — but it’s a good challenge. It is worth noting that the lines are fixed spreads that are released every Wednesday and selections are submitted Friday night.

    Here are the five ATS picks I like for Week 6 in the NFL:

    Dolphins +3.5 vs. Vikings

    Vikings QB Kirk Cousins ​​travels to Miami for the first time in his NFL career. The transition from a dome to a 90 degree heat with high humidity is not for the faint of heart. We saw the problems it caused when Josh Allen and the Bills faced the Dolphins in week 3. The Bills lost by two points. However, that was with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and now Miami has third series QB Skylar Thompson in its place.

    Still, the Vikings are prone to one-score matches with a four-point win over the Lions and a three-point win over the Saints. The Vikings’ defenses are also not immune to performing well from underpowered offenses. The Minnesota defense conceded 22 points to the Bears. Chicago QB Justin Fields had his best performance of the season against the Vikings, with 71% of his passes for 208 yards (the only time he reached 200 yards this season) and averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt. Thompson will be fine.

    The Cowboys defense has been all business this season. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

    Cowboys +6 at Eagles

    Philadelphia may be 5-0, but four of those wins came against teams bottom of six in DVOA defense. The Dallas Cowboys are in the top six. Against the only other top 10 defense the Eagles have faced, QB Jalen Hurts had zero passing touchdowns, threw one interception and was fired twice. The Cowboys’ defense has been tested against Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, a team coached by Brian Daboll, and last year’s Super Bowl Champs, the Los Angeles Rams. Both LB Micah Parsons and DE Demarcus Lawrence are off the injury list meaning they will be putting the pressure on Hurts. Not to mention, Dallas is the best in the league at limiting opponents touchdowns. We’ll finally see what this Philly team is made of.

    Falcons +5.5 vs. 49ers

    The San Francisco 49ers play back-to-back road games. Who will the Niners face next week? The 2020 Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan 31-20. The Falcons have three defeats, but all three are on six points or less.

    Atlanta has impressed by being competitive against some good defenses in the Saints, Rams and Bucs and yet she is still third in total rushing yards and the top 10 in yards per carry. Utilizing a three-back system between QB Marcus Mariota and RBs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley, I like that the Falcons are finding a way to find a back door, possibly catching the 49ers in a foresight spot.

    Cardinals -2.5 at Seahawks

    The Seattle Seahawks are near last in the league in nearly every defensive measure and have allowed six touchdowns from outside the red zone, equaling the most in the league. If Kyler Murray can’t do well against the worst defense in the league then I’m concerned about the progress of this team.

    So far, the Cardinals have faced Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the defense of Rams and Panthers, and arguably one of the best teams in the league in the Eagles. Facing a defense of Seattle ranked 32nd should feel like a vacation for Murray and Co.

    We’ve seen a lot of Denver games this season because the NFL insisted on putting the Broncos on the schedule for seemingly every prime-time game. The offense may be lackluster (31st in points per game), but the power is in the defense. The Broncos only allow 28% of games as touchdowns, the second lowest percentage in the league. That adds to why games involving the Broncos average 31 points, the fewest in the league.

    With points at a premium, I like Denver’s defense for keeping this competitive. If primetime games have shown us anything, it won’t be pretty, but it’s the ugly games that can lead to redeemed tickets.

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