On Friday, Reliance Industries’ share price rose nearly 2% to Rs 2,510.95 apiece on BSE, as earlier this week global brokerage firm Jefferies reiterated its buy rating. to action. The share price of RIL, led by Mukesh Ambani, has corrected almost 14% from its high of 2,855 rupees, reached in April this year. Jefferies said the correction by the oil-telecom conglomerate offers an opportunity to buy the meter. It has set a price target of Rs 2,950, a potential upside of 19.7% since the last close.
RIL could drive 60% sequential growth in Ebitda O2C at 1QFY23E
Multi-year inventories, lower Russian exports, lower Chinese exports, lower diesel production in Europe and delays in commissioning ME refineries are the main tailwinds for refining margins in CY22, said Jefferies. Initial estimates from the global brokerage firm suggested that RIL could deliver 60% sequential growth in EBITDA O2C as of 1QFY23E with a likelihood of earnings improvement.
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Jefferies also noted that RIL is a major beneficiary of energy inflation, with each $1/bbl improvement in annualized refining margins adding approximately $400-450 million to RIL’s consol EBITDA (up 2%). He said continued strength in refining should translate into consensus increases in FY23E earnings. Jefferies believes RIL has a sustainable competitive advantage on economy of scale, cost containment, financial strength, recurring positive FCF from FY22E. Its new growth engines with large addressable markets — Digital in Jio, e-commerce in RR, COTC (crude-oil-to-chemicals) in energy.
RIL among few major Indian companies with positive earnings review cycle ahead
Last week, JP Morgan India raised its rating on Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) from “overweight” to “neutral” earlier, and set a price target of Rs 3,170 each. The brokerage had said the oil-telecoms conglomerate was among the few major Indian companies to have a positive earnings review cycle ahead, given the strong refining and gas environment.
RIL stock price lost 4% in 5 days and 5.2% in one month. While over the past year the stock has jumped 15.2% and only 3.2% so far in 2022.
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