The Indian rupee is likely to open higher on Thursday amid a strong dollar, rally in Asian currencies and lower crude oil prices. USDINR is expected to break above 78.25 to approach the 78.00 level, according to ICICIDirect. Investors will be watching initial U.S. jobless claims data closely as it is expected to rise from 229,000 to 227,000. The rupee fell 27 paise to a record low against the U.S. dollar during from the previous session due to continued outflows from FIIs and losses on domestic equities. A stronger greenback overseas also weighed on Rupee sentiment. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 78.13 against the greenback and ended the day at a record high of 78.40, down 27 paise from its previous close.
Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
“The Indian rupee may open slightly higher on a rally in Asian currencies and lower crude oil prices. On Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures fell below $102 a barrel, representing down 22% in the past two weeks and meets the technical definition of a bear market Falling commodity prices may ease inflation fears, but recession fears bode well for the dollar, a safe haven currency.
Futures markets indicate that USDINR may open 7-9 paise lower than the previous close. However, the pair’s sentiment and directional trend remains bullish on end-of-quarter dollar demand and weaker macro data. The USDINR spot is in an uptrend and any dip towards 78 could be an opportunity for a new long with a target of 78.50 and 78.80 keeping the stop loss at 77.70.
Gaurang Somaiya, Forex and Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
“The rupiah fell to fresh all-time lows as the dollar continued to strengthen from its key crosses ahead of the important testimony from the Fed Chairman that was expected yesterday. US Treasury yields fell by fears that the US economy could slide into recession after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said higher rates are painful but are the US central bank’s way of curbing inflation. Today’s focus will be on the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI figure to be released in the US, UK and Eurozone.We expect USDINR (Spot) to trade with a positive bias and lies between 77.70 and 78.50.
Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodities and Currency Research, Religare Broking
“The Indian rupee fell to a new all-time high against the US dollar after consolidating around the 78 mark for some time amid relentless outflows from domestic equities and renewed strength in the greenback. have taken a hit amid deteriorating global growth prospects and as central banks seek to act aggressively in their fight against inflationary forces.
“Investors are seen flocking to the safety of the US dollar as UK consumer price inflation hit a new 40-year high of 9.1% last month. Meanwhile, market participants are eagerly awaiting Fed Chairman Powell’s two-day testimony before Congress for further clues as to whether the US central bank is on the verge of another big hike. rates at its July meeting. This will provide further clues for the Indian Rupee going forward, which still finds plenty of cushion around the 78.50 mark.
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